Change is slow - frustratingly so. Until suddenly - it's very, very fast.

An ancient fable about the invention of chess perfectly illustrates the concept of exponential growth. In the story, the inventor presents the game to a king and asks for a reward of one grain of rice, doubled on each of the chessboard's 64 squares. The request, which starts modestly, becomes impossible just halfway across the chessboard. By the final square, the amount of rice needed far exceeds the world’s current rice production. 

This tale underscores a critical point: humans naturally think in linear terms, but some challenges, like climate change, demand exponential thinking. When we talk about exponential growth in relation to climate change, it’s often to highlight the risks of unsustainable economic growth and runaway greenhouse gas emissions. However, exponential thinking is equally important to climate change solutions, particularly in decarbonizing the electricity sector. 

Exponential change at work in the energy transition

Good news about decarbonization can often get lost in all the noise, but when we take a step back and look at the progress of the energy transition over the last decade, we see the power of exponential change at work. 

According to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), in 2010 the U.S. solar industry installed just under 1 GW of solar capacity, a major milestone at the time. In 2023, the industry installed 32.4 GW of solar capacity, accounting for 53% of new electricity-generating capacity added to the U.S. grid that year. This was in large part thanks to a sensational decline in solar costs as technology rapidly became more efficient. By 2034, the SEIA estimates that there will be enough solar capacity in the U.S. to power more than 100 million homes. 

We see the same patterns playing out with battery storage and electric vehicles (EVs). Between 2010 and 2020, the cost of lithium-ion batteries, which are a key component of most battery storage systems, fell dramatically—by about 90%. As RMI reports, battery sales are now experiencing S-curve exponential growth. 

Global battery sales by sector, GWh/y

Source: Ziegler and Trancik (2021), Placke et al. (2017) for 1991-2014; BNEF Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook (2023) for 2015-2022 and the latest outlook for 2023 (*) from the BNEF Lithium-Ion Battery Price Survey (2023).

On the other side of the equation, we’re starting to see the exponential decline of fossil fuel plants. The U.S. is on track to close half of its coal capacity by 2025 from peak 2011 levels, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). And despite some delays, gas-powered plants aren’t far behind. 

Getting VPPs on that exponential curve

Technology has invariably been the core driver of exponential change in the energy transition (and anything else that requires scalability through humans). 

We’ve seen this firsthand at Leap as we invested in building an advanced software platform that can unlock exponential scale for virtual power plants (VPPs). By building automation capabilities into each stage of VPP operations, we are driving the efficiencies needed to trigger exponential growth. 

Especially as we gear up for the peak grid services summer season, our platform can handle tens of thousands of energy device enrollments in a single day. A few years ago, that would have meant manually navigating through a multitude of spreadsheets, emails and signature requests. With the right technology, that becomes moot: today, our automated meter connection processes enable rapid device enrollment at scale, eliminating manual work for both Leap’s team and our technology partners’ teams. 

Building these automation layers into VPP operations is key to achieving that same exponentially-declining cost curve that solar and battery storage technologies saw in the last decade. Thanks to software advancements, Leap’s platform manages approximately six times more authorized customer load on its platform today than just three years ago, with approximately the same number of employees facilitating our energy market transactions. This means that we can scale our contributions to grid reliability and revenue generated for partners without scaling operational and personnel costs. 

The Brattle Group’s recent report, California’s Virtual Power Potential: How Five Consumer Technologies Could Improve the State’s Energy Affordability, estimates that more than 7,500 MW of cost-effective VPP capacity could be deployed across California over the next decade, creating consumer savings of $550 million per year. Automating VPP operations will be critical to hitting these milestones and unlocking the exponential growth curve for VPP deployment.

As we celebrate Earth Day, the exponential growth in the virtual power plant (VPP) sector provides a powerful symbol of hope and tangible progress toward a more sustainable future. It points us toward an exciting possibility: celebrating a 100% decarbonized Earth Day within our lifetimes! The monumental advancements in solar capacity, battery storage and VPPs reflect a broader, global shift toward renewable energy that promises not only to meet but exceed our climate goals. This Earth Day, let’s reflect on the exponential progress made so far and renew our commitment to accelerating these positive changes, ensuring that every future Earth Day marks a step closer to a fully sustainable and decarbonized planet.